AI tools can now generate a lot of things that we used to rely on training for – both knowledge and skills.
Social mobility is a measure of how closely your outcomes are linked to that of your parents – the stronger the relationship, the more your background influences what you achieve in life. For example, whether you are born into a low-income family makes you more likely to be a low-income adult.
How can AI change this dynamic?
Fundamentally the way we learn is based on knowledge. For example, in school we memorise the alphabet (knowledge) and we use this to read (skill).
From an early age you see gaps in knowledge between children from different socio-economic backgrounds and this gap grows over time. This is also reflected in their attainment, including the key areas of numeracy and literacy.
And this attainment is shown to be the most important factor from a long list of things that ultimately predict your outcomes.
Why some children have stronger attainment? Because they’ve had more resources and input – more toys, experiences, nutritious food, regular reading, tutoring etc. There is a heritable element, but overall your environment is hugely influential and influences how your genes are expressed (epigenetics).
I believe AI has the potential to have a positive influence on SOME of these gaps and improve attainment of children from low-income backgrounds, by essentially providing them with more input in these aspects.
AI lowers the cost of inputs to zero in many cases, which is the primary driver of the inequalities to begin with – low-income parents just can’t afford to provide all these things (in terms of time and money).
Where AI can provide low-income children with more knowledge, advice, engagement, feedback, skills building etc. this will be positive.
But will it have a BIG impact on social mobility? I don’t think so.
Because the key mechanism that influences attainment are investments made by parents in their children’s development in the first 5 years of life – breastfeeding, speaking with kids, playing, trips to the park, high quality childcare, nutritious food etc.
I cant’ see AI closing any of these gaps and so its impact is always going to be limited when you look at the big picture.
There is plenty of research which shows early high attainers from low-income backgrounds falling behind as they get older, due to unequal opportunities / resources.
AI will be more influential for children for these children who would otherwise be held back in the later years by lack of input.
In policy, these are often referred to as the ‘low hanging fruit’ and I’m excited to see how it will close outcome gaps for these pupils.
I’m also excited to see how it improves access to professional roles.
But unfortunately, we won’t be seeing any major changes to social mobility when you look at the system level as a result of AI.
To achieve this, we need create strong family units that have plenty of support and resources to provide to their children in the early years and onwards.
I’m happy to share the evidence that underpins my points above, just ask in the comments.